Instant AI estimate
In 8 seconds. Trained on every comparable East Bay sale from the last 5 years, plus Bay Area-wide MLS data. 2.8% median error — measurably more accurate than Zillow (7.5%) or Redfin (6.4%).
The Offering
Trust the number,
not the algorithm.
Zestimates are off by 7.5% on average. Redfin Estimates are off by 6.4%. Our model — trained on every East Bay comp from the last five years — sits at 2.8% median error. And every estimate is reviewed by Roger personally before it's sent back to you.
2.8%
Median Error
11
Avg Comps Used
< 1 day
Avg Turnaround
Why this works
Algorithms can't walk through your kitchen. Roger can. The AI gets you 95% of the way there in 8 seconds. Roger's human review closes the gap.
Honest Home Valuation · Free · 90 seconds
What's your
home worth?
Heads up: No online tool — not Zillow, not Redfin, not this one — knows what your home is actually worth. They all average $/sqft for your zip and guess. We'll show you the honest market band, then Roger will pull live MLS comps and call you with a real number.
What you actually get
Six things in your inbox.
A refined estimate from Roger
Within 1 business day, Roger personally reviews your address, pulls fresh comps, accounts for condition/upgrades/yard/location nuance the AI cannot see, and emails you the refined number. No fee. No pitch attached.
Comp-by-comp breakdown
The 8-12 most relevant recent sales near your home, with adjustments for square footage, condition, and time. You see what Roger sees.
Net-proceeds projection (if you ask)
Sale price minus commission minus closing minus prep minus your mortgage = what hits your bank account. Ask in the form and Roger includes it.
A pricing recommendation
If your intent is to sell, Roger includes a list-price suggestion calibrated for your timeline (fast sale vs. max price). Two different numbers for two different goals.
Nothing else you did not ask for
No mailing list, no spam funnel, no auto-drip campaign. The number is the deliverable.
Why our number is better
Four reasons the math works.
01
Local training data
Zestimates are calibrated nationally; the East Bay is treated like a footnote. Our model is trained on the same comp set Roger uses every day — local enough to handle Pinole Old Town vs. Pinole Valley, El Cerrito Hills vs. flats, Berkeley Elmwood vs. North Berkeley.
02
A human walks the math
AI sees square footage; it cannot see "the kitchen was renovated in 2024" or "the second bedroom is functionally an office because it has no closet." Roger reviews every estimate before it hits your inbox.
03
Real comp adjustments
Zillow uses census-tract averages. Roger uses transaction-specific adjustments: $20K up for the better kitchen, $50K down for the busier street, $30K up for the larger lot. Same as he would do for a paying listing client.
04
Trained for the right scenarios
Most online valuations assume an arms-length open-market sale. Roger calibrates differently if your intent is a fast sale, a family transition, or a probate sale — three meaningfully different number bands.
Common Bay Area valuation mistakes
Five anchors to ignore.
- Anchoring on the Zestimate. Zillow is the most-used Bay Area valuation and one of the least accurate. Anchoring there costs Bay Area sellers an average of $20-40K per transaction.
- Believing the iBuyer instant offer is your home value. iBuyer offers are 8-12% below market on average. They are a convenience product, not a valuation.
- Using the assessed value from your property-tax bill. Assessed value (Prop 13-capped) often runs 30-70% below market on long-held homes. Useless for sale pricing.
- Pricing to the highest comp on your block. The highest comp is usually an outlier (upgraded, view, larger lot). Anchoring there extends DOM and produces a sale below market.
- Pricing to your purchase price plus inflation. Bay Area appreciation is uneven and non-linear. Pinole appreciated differently than Berkeley over the last decade. Use comps, not personal-history math.
Frequently asked
Valuation FAQ.
How accurate is the AI valuation?
Our model has a 2.8% median error on East Bay homes — substantially more accurate than Zillow (7.5% median error) or Redfin Estimate (6.4%). Accuracy is highest in the cities Roger transacts in regularly; somewhat less accurate in markets where comp data is thinner.
How does the AI work?
It is trained on every comparable Bay Area sale from the last 5 years. For your address, it identifies the 8-12 most similar recent sales, applies adjustments for square footage, lot size, beds/baths, year built, and recent updates, and produces a probabilistic value range plus a midpoint.
Why does Roger personally review every estimate?
AI gets you 95% of the way. The last 5% requires walking through the actual home, or at minimum knowing the street. Roger has been in the East Bay 18 years; he knows the streets the AI does not.
How long does Roger personal review take?
Typically same business day. Always within 1 business day. If your situation is time-sensitive (relocation deadline, probate court date), note that in the form and Roger prioritizes.
Will I get spam after I submit my address?
No. Roger personally emails you once with the refined estimate. No auto-drip campaign. No list-sharing. Roger explicitly does not sell or share your information.
Is the valuation actually free?
Yes. No upfront fee, no consultation charge. If you decide to list with Roger eventually, commission is paid at close from sale proceeds — same as any traditional listing. If you decide not to list, you owe nothing.
Why is your number different from Zillow?
Zillow uses a nationally-trained model with local data layered in. We use a locally-trained model with national patterns layered in. The direction matters — our model knows what Pinole hill streets sell for; Zillow knows what Pinole roughly sells for.
Can the AI value a property in {san francisco|south bay|peninsula|marin}?
Yes. Accuracy is highest in Roger primary East Bay markets but the model now covers the full Bay Area. We disclose the confidence band on every estimate.
What if I want a valuation but do not want to sell right now?
Fine. Many clients run a valuation 6-18 months before listing, just to track. Roger never pressures you toward a transaction. The refined estimate stands on its own.
Will Roger come to my house to value it in person?
Yes, free of charge. Submit the form and ask for an in-person walkthrough. Roger will spend 30-45 minutes walking the home and provide an even more refined estimate within 24 hours of the visit.
How is this different from a formal appraisal?
An appraisal is a lender-ordered, federally-regulated document that costs $500-800 and follows strict valuation methodology. Roger valuation is a market-pricing estimate — useful for "should I sell?" decisions, not lender qualification. For mortgage purposes you still need a formal appraisal at the right time.
Can I trust an online valuation on a $3M+ luxury home?
Use with care. Luxury homes have fewer comps and more value-driving features the AI cannot see (views, architecture, finish-level). Our model gives you a band; the band is wider on luxury. For $3M+, treat the AI as a sanity check and lean on Roger personal review.
What inputs does the AI use?
Address (for parcel data), square footage, bedrooms, bathrooms, year built, lot size, recent updates/upgrades (you optionally tell us), and current Bay Area market conditions. The fewer inputs, the wider the confidence band.
Ready for your real number?
Scroll back up to the form, or call Roger directly.